Tuesday, 5 May 2015

Aeroplan Miles: A Complete Guide

Aeroplan, for better or worse, it is undoubtedly the most important and relevant airline rewards program to Canadians. The reasons for that are plentiful:
  • Air Canada is the largest Canadian airline owning nearly 4 times the number of planes as its closest rival, WestJet.
  • Air Canada was the only large Canadian airline to offer a rewards program for years, until WestJet recently introduced one as well.
  • Due to Canadian laws, only Canadian airlines can operate flights that both originate and terminate in Canada. All other airlines can only offer flights with one point of entry into Canada.
  • The number of partners, credit cards, and other earning opportunities available through Aeroplan is only exceeded by Air Miles and it is actually a retail rewards program, not an airline rewards program.
That being said, Aeroplan is not without its problems and many people are quick to complain about the program and often abandon it after having a frustrating experience. Fortunately, understanding the program better combined with a little planning can make most of these frustrations go away. Before I get into the good stuff of teaching you how to earn Aeroplan miles faster as well as get the most value out of your Aeroplan redemption, I'm going to give you a quick overview of how Aeroplan works and explain roughly how to calculate how much Aeroplan miles are worth in terms of dollars.
Nobody wants to waste their time earning 10 miles here and 20 miles there while taking a lifetime to achieve any sort of reward and after reading this guide you won't have to anymore!

Measuring Value

Calculating the exact value of your Aeroplan miles is a tricky business and everyone approaches it a little differently. A reasonable barometer that can be used is 25,000 miles = roughly $700, which represents the lowest cost before taxes to fly from the east coast of Canada to Vancouver. The Aeroplan redemption section goes into more detail about why this is a reasonable reward choice to compute the value and how you can get an even higher value for your miles.

The Value Of An Aeroplan Mile

Using the estimate above we can easily compute the rough value of a mile for discussion purposes.
$700 / 25,000 miles = 2.8 cents per mile

Rate Of Return

Even more important than knowing the value of a single mile is the rate of return you are getting when earning Aeroplan miles. This is calculated by determining how much money you spend earning miles in relation to the overall value you get for those miles. This lets you easily compare different earning opportunities and decide if that opportunity is worth your while or to see if a particularAeroplan credit card will give you a better return than another competing card. Here is an example.
The CIBC Aerogold credit card rewards you with 1 Aeroplan mile for every dollar you spend on the card. Using the above mile value, here is your rate of return for spending $1:
1 mile earned x 2.8 cents per mile = 2.8 cents / $1 [100 cents] = 0.028 = 2.8%
This means that on the spending you do on the card you are effectively getting a 2.8% discount because that is what is being returned to you in rewards. From there you need to determine how much you will be spending on the card annually to determine annual credit card reward. You also want to keep in mind that the Aerogold card gives 1.5 miles per dollar spent at gas, grocery, and drug stores yielding the following return:
1.5 mile earned x 2.8 cents per mile) = 4.2 cents / 100 cents [$1] = 0.042 = 4.2%
As you can see, a 4.2% discount is a decent return and this can be easily stacked with other sales, discounts, and promotions you might encounter. Of course, you have to factor the annual fee into the equation as well. The more you spend within a given year, the less important the annual fee becomes. If you spend $20,000 per year on your Aerogold, this is the result using both earning ratios:
$20,000 x 2.8% = $560 - $120 annual fee = $440 earned / $20,000 = 2.2%
$20,000 x 4.2% = $840 - $120 annual fee = $720 earned / $20,000 = 3.6%

Earning Regular Miles

The normal way to earn Aeroplan miles is, not surprisingly, by flying on an Air Canada flight. You can also earn miles on a number of partner airlines that are a member of the Star Alliance airline alliance. The amount of miles that you will earn varies depending on the length of the flight, the class of ticket (read “price”), and the airline you are flying with. The miles are calculated based on the actual miles, not kilometres, flown with a 500 mile minimum payout for shorter flights. You can consult the following table to get an idea of exactly how many miles you will earn for the flight you booked, with 100% being the exact number of miles flown.
Percent EarnedAirlineTicket Class
25%Air CanadaTango (North America)
100%Air CanadaTango (global), Tango Plus, Latitude, Upgrade, Vacations
125%Air CanadaExecutive (low – global)
150%Air CanadaExecutive (all – North America)
Executive (high – global)
100%Air Canada JazzTango, Tango Plus, Latitude
150%Air Canada JazzExecutive
Up to 160%Star AllianceFull Details
Unfortunately accrual rates aren’t standardized across all Star Alliance partners, so you will need to visit the specific partner page on Aeroplan.com to determine exactly how many miles you will earn.

Earning Status Miles

There is a second type of miles that can often be earned in tandem with Regular Miles called Status Miles. These are the miles that count towards qualifying you for one of the several Air Canada preferred statuses, known as the Air Canada Top Tier Program, which each comes with an increasing set of benefits, depending on which level you qualify for. Air Canada describes the difference between the two types of miles in their FAQ. You can also qualify for a status tier by flying a certain number of flight segments, even if the distance traveled wouldn’t normally be enough to qualify you. This is to accommodate those passengers who fly frequently with Air Canada but only fly short distances. The different tiers in the program and the miles or segments required to qualify for them are as follows:
Status TierMilesSegments
Prestige25,00025
Elite35,00050
Super Elite100,00095

Redeeming Miles

Again, the normal way to redeem Aeroplan miles is for flights. Short haul flights to nearby provinces and states (aka. short haul) start for as little as 15,000 miles and 25,000 miles will get you a flight anywhere in the United States or Canada. The full chart is available on their website but here is an abbreviated version of the chart including only departures from within Canada & Continental USA.
DestinationEconomyBusinessClassicPlus
Short Haul15,00025,00022,500+
Canada & Continental USA25,00040,00037,500+
Mexico35,00055,00050,000+
Hawaii40,00060,00055,000+
Caribbean & Nearby Areas40,00060,00055,000+
Central America40,00060,00055,000+
South America50,00075,00070,000+
Western Europe60,00085,00070,000+
Eastern Europe75,000100,00080,000+
Asia75,000115,000110,000+
Middle East75,000115,000110,000+
Australia75,000115,000110,000+
Over the years Aeroplan has become more of a full featured rewards program that includes a lot of options outside flights for both earning and redeeming miles. If you visit the Use Your Miles section of Aeroplan.com you will see all the options they have available including flights, hotels, car rentals, activities, merchandise, and vacation packages. These additional options are great for added flexibility, but redeeming for flight rewards almost universally gives you the best value for your miles.

Criticisms

The Aeroplan program is not without its critics and there are many genuine concerns with the program. To give you an idea of what to expect, here are a few of the most common complaints:

Lack Of Reward Availability

On every Air Canada flight there is a select few seats that are designated for sale as Aeroplan reward seats. These seats are very limited and their exact quantity can change depending on how well seats on the flight are selling. The exact formula they use to determine this is unknown, but they would sell every seat to a paying customer regardless if it had been previously designated as an Aeroplan seat. The limits are primarily in place to ensure the whole plane isn’t booked by rewards passengers, not the other way around. However, they do occasionally run promotions where they release a whole slew of extra reward seating on many of their flights or add more seats on a specific flight if it is selling poorly. So, you may get a second chance even if it appears all the available Aeroplan seats are taken.
Complaining about this problem rose to a whole new level when Aeroplan introduced the ClassicPlus rewards redemption option a few years back. It was heavily marketed by them as a benefit to Aeroplan members because it essentially opens up every seat on every plane to be booked using Aeroplan miles, but it does so at a very stiff cost. As you can see from the chart above, ClassicPlus seats are many thousands of points more expensive than standard rates. In fact, their minimum cost is often close to double or very near the cost of the business class ticket and it can rise even further on high demand flights. When you have been saving long and hard for a reward flight, blowing that many extra miles for a seat is not a very attractive option for most people.
So just how bad is this problem? Well, on extremely popular routes like between Vancouver and Australia, the business class rewards seats can be gone within the first hour after they become available. Typically seats are put in the system roughly 355 days in advance of the actual flight so you have to know this and be the first on the phone if you want to snag that high-demand high-value seat. With seats like this being theoretically worth up to $14,000, a little extra effort is definitely worth it! Fortunately, most routes aren’t subject to this kind of demand but you will still usually need to book up to 6 months in advance to get in on the first round of reward seats. I wouldn’t suggest waiting for the second round, because it may never come!

High Taxes And Fees

Booking a reward flight with miles does not cover the taxes and fees! This is pretty standard amongst all airline rewards programs, but what isn’t standard is how comparatively high these fees are with Aeroplan. Here’s an example:
Using Air Canada Aeroplan and American Airlines AAdvantage, a simple spot check was done comparing a return rewards flight from Halifax (YHZ) to New York (JFK or LGA) for the randomly chosen dates departing April 9th, 2011 and returning April 16th, 2011. Both of these flights cost 25,000 miles to book. However, the taxes and fees were vastly different with AAdvantage at 44.96 CAD and Aeroplan at $155.21 CAD. For those keeping score, Aeroplan is 245% higher or 3.45 times as expensive as AAdvantage.
There may be various government regulations and airport improvement fees that only apply to Air Canada at work here, so it can’t be said definitely if Aeroplan or Air Canada is entirely to blame. What can be said is the following:
  • The difference is always huge whenever a direct route comparison is done between a USA based carrier and Air Canada.
  • Air Canada is quick to charge fuel surcharges and these aren’t covered by the reward booking.
  • For cheaper flights, the taxes and fees can sometimes be higher than the cost of the flight itself.
  • Fortunately, they do clearly break down the fees so at least you can see exactly what you are being charged for.

Inconsistent Fees

Bizarrely, the fees for Aeroplan reward flights are often higher then the fees for the exact same paid flight booked with Air Canada. Here is just one example:
Using Aeroplan.com and AirCanada.com, another spot check was done using the same route (YHZ > LGA) and dates as above. The Aeroplan taxes and fees amounted to $164.25 while those for Air Canada were $123.68. That’s a 32.8% premium for nothing! When comparing the two fee breakdowns, all of the numbers are different but most of them are nearly identical except for the Fuel Surcharge. It appears that at the time of this writing, fuel surcharges on this route only apply to reward bookings and not regular bookings. That added cost, $54.00 in this case, would impact all of the other numbers which are calculated based on the total cost of the ticket. Another difference, this time positive, is that the HST/GST charges are less on the rewards ticket because it is only applied to the fees but not the actual ticket price because that part isn’t technically being purchased.

Extra Costs

There are strict rules when it comes to booking or changing an Aeroplan rewards flight that can quickly add up if you aren’t careful.
  • $30 + tax booking fee if you want to book using an agent instead of the website which is often necessary.
  • $90 + tax fee to make advance changes of any kind to a reward booking.
    • Additional miles may be required depending on availability.
  • $75 + tax fee to make same day changes while at the airport.
    • In this instance, additional miles are not required.
  • $90 + tax fee for cancelling an award booking and reinstating the Aeroplan miles.
    • This can only be done 22 days or more before scheduled departure.
    • For 21 days and less you can only reschedule the flight up to 1 year in the future (change fee applies).

Monday, 4 May 2015

Planting a New Lawn from Seed

Starting a lawn from seed is the least expensive way to transform your home or garden with a new lawn. Find information and step-by-step instructions on how to turn grass seed into a lush, beautiful lawn.
The best time to start lawns from seed, or by any means, is just prior to the grass's season of most vigorous growth.

What season are you?

First, you need to determine the type of grass that grows best in your climate — whether you need cool-season or warm-season grass. Think of cool-season and warm-season grasses as the yin and yang of the turf world. Or better yet, when you think of cool season grasses, envision blue spruce. When you think of warm-season grasses, envision palm trees. Get the picture?
For cool-season grasses (which grow best in fall, spring, and, in some areas, winter), the best time to plant is late summer to early fall. At that time of year, the ground is still warm enough for quick germination, and the young grass plants have the entire upcoming cool season to become established.
Early spring is the second-best time to start a cool-season lawn from seed. The young grass has less time to become established before the onset of hot weather, but results are usually satisfactory as long as you start seeding early enough.
Warm-season grasses are best planted in late spring. At that time, the weather is still mild enough to let you get the grass established, but the hot weather of summer and the most vigorous growth are just around the corner.

Ready, set, grow

The soil is ready, the site is level, and the watering system is in place — now you can plant the seed.
  1. Spread the seed.
    Make sure that you properly set your spreader rate for sowing seed. (You can check the manufacturer's instructions, but many times, the spreader has the necessary information printed on it.) Put half the grass seed in the spreader. Spread the first half of the seed by walking in one direction and then spread the second half crisscross to the first direction. This pattern ensures even coverage.
    Don't forget to use a starter fertilizer. Starter fertilizers are high in the nutrient phosphorous, which is essential to seedlings.
  2. Top-dress the seed to hold moisture.
    Open the door of a peat spreader (or cage roller) and fill it with peat moss or other fine-textured organic matter. You may end up spilling some, so don't do this on the lawn surface; otherwise, you have to clean up the mess, disturbing the seedbed as you do.
    Briskly push the cage roller back and forth over the lawn until you cover the entire area. Apply a very thin layer, 1/8- to 1/4-inch of mulch, no more. Adjust your speed until the roller applies about the right amount.
    image0.jpg
    If you live in a windy area where the peat moss blows around or if you're trying to save a dime, you can lightly rake the seedbed instead of mulching. Use a stiff metal rake and just lightly push and pull the tines back and forth to make shallow grooves and cover the seed. Don't push too hard, or you'll move the seed around or cover it too deeply.
  3. Roll the surface.
    To ensure good contact between seed and soil, roll the entire area with a roller that you've filled only halfway with water. Roll the perimeter first and then finish the entire area.
  4. Water.
    This may be the most important step. With the first watering, make sure that you apply enough water to wet the soil down to at least 6 to 8 inches. Apply the water gently so that you don't wash the seed away or create puddles.
    You may have to water several times in short intervals until the bed is thoroughly wet. After that, water often enough to keep the top inch or so of the seedbed moist until the seed germinates. Remember, seeds get only one shot at germination. Let them dry out, and they're dead.
    Sprinkle the seedbed lightly with a handheld hose several times a day — especially if it's hot or windy — to get even germination across the entire lawn. However, you don't want to overdo it. Too much water causes the seed to rot.
    Watch the color of the soil surface. As the soil dries, the surface becomes lighter in color. When you notice about half to two-thirds of the surface lightening up, it's about time to water.
  5. Protect the seedbed.
    Here comes the neighbor's dog! Oh, no, what a muddy mess. To keep kids, pets, or whatever off your newly seeded, very wet lawn, encircle it with brightly colored string attached to small stakes.
    However, that may not be enough for the dog. If the lawn is small, you can surround the whole area with some roll-out metal fencing available at hardware stores — or at least tell the neighbor to keep her dog in her own yard.

Caring for your new lawn after germination

As your new lawn becomes established, you can start easing up on the water, depending on the weather. If you continue your everyday watering routine, you're likely to overdo it and rot the young seedlings. Also, if the ground is too wet, you can inhibit root growth.
When you have a pretty even ground cover of new seedlings, try skipping a day of watering and see what happens. Watch the grass carefully. If the color starts to go from bright green to dull gray green, the grass needs water. You may have to water some quick-to-dry areas with a handheld hose.
If the grass doesn't dry out, keep stretching the intervals between watering until you're on a schedule of once or twice a week, or as needed. When you do water, don't forget to water deeply, getting the moisture down 6 to 8 inches. Don't be a light-sprinkling fool — you end up with one lousy lawn.
But there's more to a new lawn than just watering. You need to mow the new lawn when it reaches 3 to 4 inches high, depending on the type of grass. Mow when the soil is on the dry side; otherwise, you might tear up the new turf.
You also need to make your first application of fertilizer about 4 to 6 weeks after germination. Young seedlings have a hefty appetite, so don't skip this important feeding. (After you have your grass growing, Keeping an Eco-Friendly Lawn can help you keep both the lawn and the environment healthy.)

Sowing grass seed

Grow your own lawn from seed
The most important considerations in establishing a new lawn are: drainage, soil quality, seedbed preparation, and choice of seed, fertility and moisture.
If you choose to plant your new lawn in the spring, begin just as soon as the soil is dry enough to work, preferably mid-April to mid-May. This will give your new grass time to get well established before the hot, dry weather sets in.
Fall is often a better time to start your lawn, from mid-August to the end of September. Your seedbed is less likely to dry out at this time of year, and the grass should be well established before winter.
The area to be seeded should be as level as possible, with a gentle slope away from buildings. If possible, avoid steep slopes or terraces where water may erode or wash away topsoil. The entire surface should have a layer of good topsoil about 12 to 15 cm deep. It may be advisable to mix peat moss or composted manure into your topsoil for best results.
The seedbed
Rake the surface thoroughly to prepare the seedbed and avoid any depressions that may hold surface water. Apply a good quality fertilizer, preferably with an analysis on a 1-2-1 ratio, the middle number representing the proportion of phosphorous. This will assist in developing a healthy root system. Rake the surface again before seeding.
Choosing and planting the seed
It pays to select good quality seed. It is also wise to choose a mixture of at least two or three turfgrass varieties in accordance with your requirements. This will depend on sun and shade conditions. Don't skimp when seeding. It is best to use a mechanical spreader, although small areas may be hand seeded. Distribute the seed as evenly as possible, applying half the seed traveling back and forth, crossing your first pattern at 90° with the balance of the seed.
Rake lightly, then roll lightly to ensure that the seed is in firm contact with the soil. Water slowly and evenly until 2.5 cm of topsoil is thoroughly moist and keep soil moist until grass seedlings are well established. Avoid creating puddles.
Tending the new lawn
When new grass has grown to a height of 6 to 8 cm, it may be cut, but not to shorter than 4 to 5 cm. Do not let the grass grow so long that it will not stand upright. Ensure that your mower blade is sharp to avoid unnecessary bruising of the grass plants. While there must be reasonable growth of leaves to develop a healthy root system, mow the lawn regularly so cuttings will be only 12 to 15 mm long. This avoids having to remove cuttings.
Feeding a new lawn
If you start your lawn in the spring, it will require feeding again in late June and again in the fall. For this first feeding, use half the rate recommended on the fertilizer package. Use the full recommendation for the fall feeding.
What about weeds?
If you have been careful to put down good topsoil, weeds during early growth of your new lawn should not be a big problem. Some careful hand weeding is best for the first few weeds that appear during the first four to six weeks.
After a new lawn has been cut at least twice, you may apply a weed control product if necessary, but be sure to follow the directions on the package very carefully.
Overseeding can improve your lawn
Your lawn will continue to improve with age, if you follow these simple rules:
  • Keep your lawn free of weeds, either by hand weeding or with a weed control product.
  • Fertilize your lawn at least three times a year, following directions on the package.
  • Each spring or fall, after cutting the grass very short, rake thoroughly and, if necessary, add a little top dressing.
  • If the soil appears hard and compacted, go over it with an aerating roller, then top dress and reseed as above.
  • Try and keep your lawn cut to about 5 cm in height, and avoid leaving cuttings longer than 12 to 15 mm on the lawn after mowing.

Friday, 1 May 2015

忧郁症自我治疗的25种方法


  • 面对忧郁要处之泰然,因为悲伤是必经的常态。
  • 找些事情做,转移注意力,例如散步、下棋、骑脚踏车、阅读等。
  • 从记忆中寻找快乐。
  • 找朋友顷诉,加以发泄。
     
  • 大哭一场,尽情的流泪。
  • 冷静的分析情况。
  • 凡事只求尽力,结果的呈现并非自己可以决定。
  • 运动有助于克服忧郁症,如果平日就有运动的习惯,不妨试着耗尽全身力气。
     
  • 涂鸭,以写字或画画来抒发感受。
     
  • 直接的问清楚怀疑的事情。
  • 找些很乏味的事情做以分散注意力。
  • 放松自己,慢下脚步。
  • 忧郁时避免做重大决定,以免决策错误使忧郁更严重。
     
  • 即使情绪低落,还是要尊重他人,不可迁怒他人。
  • 远离百货公司,避免不理性的购物。
     
  • 关紧冰箱,避免以吃东西扺抗忧郁的冲动。
     
  • 营养能控制情绪,维他命B群可以帮助扺抗忧郁。
     
  • 尽量外出,不要待在家里,以免使情绪更低落,外出也能增加认识世界的机会。
     
  • 参加活动,令生活充实,减少今自己胡思乱想的时间。
     
  • 参与一些援助穷困人士的活动,体验别人的苦况,藉以激励自己。
     
  • 就算没有胃口也不要不吃正餐,避免营养不良。
     
  • 当自杀念头出现,尽量告诉他人防止自己作出伤害自己的行为。
     
  • 每天记下自己作过的好事,不论事大事小,也要记下来,待自己回头看看时知道自己原来不是这么的没有用处。
     
  • 当能战胜伤害自己的念头/忧郁时,可以奖励自己,也会觉得自己有能力去对抗忧郁/伤害自己的念头。
  • 与一位理想的伴侣相知相惜,相互关怀,有了情感上的寄托也可较易脱离忧郁。

  • 牛市火爆!一图看懂庄家如何套走你的钱

    《牛市火爆!一图看懂庄家如何套走你的钱》“道理我都懂,可我还想干他娘的一票!”

    Friday, 24 April 2015

    Windows 8.1 Tip: Use System Image Backup

    When the Windows 8.1 Preview appeared in June, some upgraders noticed that this new OS version omitted what had previously been a crucial recovery tool: The system image backup that had debuted in Windows 7. But system image backup is indeed available in Windows 8.1. It's just really well hidden.
    I wrote about using system image backup with Windows 8 last year in Windows 8 Tip: Use Windows 7 System Image Backup. And if you're interested in how Windows 8.1 changes the recovery story, be sure to check out Hands-On with Windows 8.1: System Recovery. That article has a discussion about the devices-based alternatives to system image backup that are available in this new OS release.
    Here, I'll focus on how you access system image backup in Windows 8.1. It's changed since Windows 8, where you could find it by searching for recovery. That tip no longer works in Windows 8.1.
    When you think about system image backup, you have to see both sides of the equation. On the one hand, you have the ability to make system image backups. And on the other, you have the ability to do a complete OS restore.
    To make a system image backup in Windows 8.1, you must navigate to the File History control panel (and not the main File History interface, which is in the Metro-style PC Settings.) Using Smart Search, be sure to choose the right entry.

    In the File History control panel that appears, look in the lower left corner. The option you're looking for is System Image Backup. Click that, and the familiar Create a System Image wizard appears and you're good to go.

    To restore an existing system image backup—that is, to restore the entire OS install to a previous point in time—simply plug-in the external drive that contains the backup. Then, navigate to PC Settings, Update and Recovery, Recovery and click the Restart Now button under Advanced Startup. The PC will restart.
    At the Choose an Option screen, choose Troubleshoot.
    At Troubleshoot, choose Advanced Options.
    At the Advanced Options screen, choose System Image Recovery. The PC will restart.
    At the System Image Recovery screen, select your user name and then type your password when prompted.
    The Re-Image Your Computer wizard will start. In the first page of this wizard, select the correct system image you wish to restore to. Then click Next and step through the wizard to restore your PC to the selected system image backup.
    Is this the ideal tool for backing up and restoring Windows 8.1? No. But for those that wish to continue using this tool, it does still work. And of course it's valuable to have around if you have backups from previous versions of Windows.

    Thursday, 16 April 2015

    ZT "老朽"所经历的两次房地产机遇

    人的命运有时不掌握在自己身上,你或许满腹经纶却怀才不遇,你或有伏波之才却无用武之地,你可能有一百条来美国的理由,也会被签证官扼杀成梦想。但是人的一生会有机遇,你如果能抓住机遇,就能改变人生。岁月如流,机遇难求。
    一转眼来美国二十多年了,从怀揣45美元落机的学生,终于有了自己公司,拥有了一些房产,具体多少以后再表,反正不是个位数。世界上什么都有卖,就是没卖后悔药的。正因为抓住了几遇,今天没有后悔,写点自己经历,供他人参考。
    我一直生活在南加州,气候宜人,是安居乐业的好地方,人口尤其是移民人口增加迅猛,人口是推动房价的最主要动力。和股市一样,肯定有下跌的时候。在过去的二十多年里有两次大跌,第一次止于1998年,第二次始于2008年。两次都持续了三四年时间。
    第一次像断崖式,来的迅猛,直接触底,连续几年房地产死水一潭,甚至让我等自以为抄底的初入门小户感到绝望。
    第二次离今天没几年,从零八年股市崩盘开始,这次是俯冲式,多少房产主眼看着自己的财产一年比一年缩水,欲哭无泪。
    我在这两次爆跌的底部果断杀入,详情再续。

    房地产投资,你就算有三头六臂也离不开一个字----钱!卖淫贩毒钱来的快,这里不讨论。中大奖,继承家业,我家坟头上没长那根蒿子。对绝大多数平民百姓来说,只有老老实实合法赚钱。
    第一,凭体力。当一天和尚撞一天钟,没有风险,最多老板不发工钱。此乃下策.
    第二,凭一技之长。有一技在身,温饱无虞,但也看什么技,满大街还能找到修打字机的吗?十年前修电脑的也曾底气十足,现在百十来块可买一台,谁还去修?此乃中策。
    第三,凭脑力智慧。这是上策。
    第四,用钱赚钱,是上上策。不过风险大,有可能血本无归。
    最后,赚钱方式的最高境界是用别人的钱去赚钱!
    说到钱可能刺痛某些人神经,有些人自恃清高,视钱财为粪土。事实是--没钱是万万不能的。倒退二十几年,就是有心行善,但也囊中羞涩。
    这里扯几句钱的话题是以后文中不能回避的,本人虽文科历史本科,但长期不读书不看报,自我调侃与文盲有的一拼。单击敲字,爬格赛蜗牛蚁步,敬请各位慢慢等待。

    既然大家都想知结果,就直奔主题,枝节日后再叙。不过我是想通过讲诉前因后果,以自己的经历抛出点教科书没有的东西。
    九零年起,我在一家地产公司上班。国内一学文科的在此没一技之长,无寸箭之功。只好从清洁,打杂,油漆干起。前面讲过,此乃下策,怎么也得学个修水电手艺,逃离苦力。然后考个经纪执照,起码做个劳心者之人。九二年起,断崖式大跌来到之时,我已有三四万资金,在房屋拍卖会上买回一500尺的studio,$38000,减去我自己的经纪佣金2000。拍卖来的东西,往往残破不堪。我的计划将其装修一新,不用高档材料,驴粪球外面光就行,然后租出去。我已经又考到营建执照,装修好立照存证,备足文件,再弄几个相同房屋出售的材料,当然找卖最高的。下一步,找家银行把房抵押出去,提出申请,房价值8万,我收的租减去房贷(假设)地税,管理费,维修,还有盈余,能借多少,多多益善。银行同意贷我四万,那时的利率30年是10%。这样我的房子就是无本生意,用借来的钱去买下一个,这样鸡生蛋,蛋生鸡,理论上讲可以这么玩下去,不过也是蛮拼的。
    此时我的长辈亲戚看我孺子可教,分两次借我十万,每月本1000,利400共还1400。我承认这是我生意发展的关键推力,那时代国内出来的留学生,大多读博读硕,谁也不比谁差,大家在同一起跑线上,我人推了一下。当时有两条路,开快餐店或接手一加油站。和老婆商量再三,决定倾囊杀入房市。九三年十月某日的一次大型拍卖会,HUD, US Housing and Urban Development,(未完)

    几年里大小不同的拍卖会去过几十次,是几十次!看房次数就更多了,一到周末就满世界看房,老婆坐旁边找地图,女人方向感差,这是她最不愿意干的事。手里资金有限,功课要做足。拍卖会每次必去,就是不买,也当是学习,算是敬业吧。那次拍卖会从早八点开始,300栋房,一天卖完。亲们,自己算算一天有几小时,多少分钟卖一个,卖白菜也没这速度啊。这种拍卖真够刺激,老婆坐旁边负责举牌,我观察场上状况给她指令,能感觉到她脑门冒汗,手发抖,机会可能稍纵即逝,一槌落下拍到了,几万块就将出去了。那天我们买到四栋condo.资金还留了些,不久还有一次拍卖有想要的东西。
    我文章的题目是机遇,不光是抄底的机遇,另个机遇是贷款。自住房只需100刀,给08年的大跌埋下祸根,咱不理它,毕竟只能买一个。投资出租房25%头款,有十万在手买十来个几万一个的不是不可能,FHA 贷款就可以贷到十笔,我就是这样做的,而且我搞到13笔,96年我的贷款共18笔,几乎每个房都借了钱,整个是在给银行打工。我是贪婪,银行比我还贪婪,就是放高利贷。不过不要紧,这是别人的钱,我原本是无产阶级,如果还不出贷款,最多将我打回原形。到此我说的最高境界应该理解了吧,用句无赖话说就是空手套白狼!
    98年当我用尽所有资源买了两个房后,可以说是精赤条条,有人说我买的都是垃圾,也有人形容我是auction king.我买的可不是内华达沙漠,是加州橙县,仅次于旧金山,第二个居民买不起房的地方。现在看来当时捡的就是黄金,两万的房今年租金超过1100每月,这是TM什么回报率! 第二年地产开始回暖,我们开始调整,找换低率利贷款,加房租,积蓄能量,等待下一次机会。有人问我有没有在06年进场,用巴菲特的话回答,别人贪婪的时候我恐惧。

    容我开始加杂粗鄙语言。看到回复尽是友善言辞,无一拍砖,有点得意。上山下乡经历了个尾声,也算是受过广阔天地的洗礼,吃苦耐劳自然不在话下,生性不本分,口无遮拦,不拘小节,粗中无细,好琢磨旁门佐道。很多人总抱怨时不与我,这辈就遇不到好事,吃屎都赶不上一泡热乎的。其实08年才过去多久?这里暂按下不表。文行至此肯定挑起些许人的神经,有羡慕的,赞美的,妒嫉的,一定有跃跃欲试的。今日此文想给还处与梦想成为地主的浇盆凉水。没读过博没读完硕,理论的东西咱玩不转,只根据二十多年经历聊点实用东西。
    首先,记住我这句话----这个世界上无论在哪里,无论哪个行业,真正赚钱的永远是少数。
    说到房地产投资
    第一,最大的问题一个字----钱!必须有相当数目的一笔钱,不管是你自己的还是借的。如果只有一千块,那你该干嘛干嘛,就是赌了落个爽,或是来几顿生猛海鲜弄一肚子好下水。有一万块,可以去股市走一遭。有个十万八万(不能和二十年前比)要看是谁,在哪。(要是我,在las vegas,riverside可以小试一把了。)在南加州洛县橙县恐怕还欠点。
    第二,最难的问题两个字----头痛!凡事缩头乌龟,狗怂一个,还是去玩股票吧!房子出租头痛的事多了去了。最常见的就是不交房租,这就要说到美国是法制国家,各行业都有行规。不交房租除了找律师上法庭还拿他没辙。你横你也不敢打他一顿,或断人家水电,把人家东西扔大街上去,那你的麻烦就大了。其他问题像是房客的狗咬人,房屋有霉菌,和邻居打架,在家干非法勾当等,哪一项都有可能被告上法庭。说个奇闻吧,有房客在浴室里干苟且之事,动作过于猛烈,撞到玻璃门被划伤,房东成了被告。
    第三,房子藏不住带不走。要是急等钱用,不能马上兑现。特别是你居无定所,工作时常迁移,不要说投资,就是自住也还等等吧。
    第四,见效慢。投资房市不可能立杆见影,等个数年才见收益不奇怪。不过你时机选的对,经营得法,会大大缩短时间。我在2012年五月买的condo,$85000.从08年起的金融危机到此是尾了,也就是第二次机遇。2013年的五月,整整一年,涨到$170000!这是我把握最准,见效最快的一次。
    以上是投资房地产不利的地方,下次谈谈好的一面,大家爱听的。关于我的第二次机遇等等再说。

    投资房地产的好处,教科书上讲了好几条,我也没啥新鲜的,但我加上自己的经验和感想用我的语言讲的更直接了当!
    第一,拥有房产你牛逼,这点书上不提。设想你有五,六百万股票(股市和房市有的比)和我有几十套房子,即使有房贷,谁更牛逼?对我等小业主来说,别说有个十套八套condo,就是三五套值几十万和有存款几十万或股票几十万的相比,你就属你是小母牛坐酒缸——醉牛逼!
    第二,只要不急功近利,赚钱啊!房价房租都会上涨,贷款利率是固定的,而且有还清的时候。(低利率贷款千万别还清,有闲钱再投资)只要投资地点得当,比如南加州,人口增加迅猛,二十多年前橙县从两百多万曾涨到三百多万,供求关系越来越紧张,尤其是低端的便宜房。五年十年或更短会见成效,时间越久,获利越大,可以用摇钱树来形容。你的树要是种的好,就是到你死,还在摇钱。可以说是荫及子孙。
    第三,如果是现金购房(我自己很少运用,获利少,详情再叙)直接获利,立杆见影。比如三十万能买套不错的房,租两千不是问题,立马有钱花,三十万的股票能花吗?三十万存银行百分之一的利息都没有,这叫有spendable money。再说房租会上涨,房价会涨到六十万,九十万,信不信由你,反正我信了。记住我另一句话——钱放在银行里就等于把冰放在太阳下晒。
    第四,有很多扣税好处,只举一例。投资房有二十七年折旧。我自己每年有五万多折旧,比如年收入十五万,直接扣掉五万不用交税。
    其他好处就不提了,教科书上都有。
    08年的金融风暴大家还记忆犹新,为什么说是不期而遇,因为准备不足。98年弹尽粮绝后,再也没钱再买,只能观望等待,同时经营好已有生意。第二年房地产复苏,租金获利显现,同时利率下降。拥有房产的另一好处是重新贷款,减少还贷。10万块30年10%利率一个月要880,5%是500多,要是借了几十上百万,重新贷款省下不少,那时的cash out很容易,这样可以合并数目小的,减少帐单份数,便于管理。房屋财产是掌握在自己手里,三万五买来的一栋房几年后以十三万卖了出去,要知道租金已收了好几年。股票的小命可自己说了不算,在大势和大户手里捏着。从98到08十年里,房价一路上升,除了卖没有买进。
    那时的银行股随着房市一路高歌,我当时已是BofA preferred customer,银行经理每次见到我就想借钱给我,因房价高有钱也没用。我是在房地产里一路走到黑,有理财专家告诫说,不要把鸡蛋全放在一个篮子里,要分散投资等等,我不敢苟同,老子就是把鸡蛋放一个篮子里,怎地?再说有的所谓顾问,二十啷当岁,刚拿个什么学位,乳臭未干,黄口雌牙,办公室一坐,充起大铆钉,照本宣科,除了讲点基本常识,说不出个子丑寅卯,小母牛到拉车,牛逼在前头。我的理解是,十个鸡蛋放在10个篮子里,打碎5个,还有5个,其中有两个能孵出小鸡,也还不错。那我干嘛不精心挑个好蓝子,好生伺候,让所有的蛋全孵出小鸡来不更好吗?
    (未完)

    行文至此有人可能想问,还没白活完,你丫到底有多少房,说出来不结了吗。那好,到九八年算第一阶段,28栋。到08年前,只出未进 。08到2012又进了几个总共34。我就一普通人,抓住和没放弃机会而已,用自己的几万和借来的十万通过银行贷款能滚到这些已实属不易。但你要指望我成千万,亿万富翁,我再努力也不成,用牛城地主的话说,那是命里的事,用我的话说  ——逼芯支不起被子。有好事者会算这些房的市值,没有像有人列出的图表那么高,每栋房在15到35万之间。当然自己住的远远高出。
    还得说08年的事,现在我后悔没事先多贷点钱出来。前面提过,银行追着要给我钱,我到是贷了一笔line of credit ,不是我非要,银行当时也要业绩,手续尤其简单。当时的钱好借极了。还有另一笔钱,银行打电话到家里问我要不要钱,说是电话里就可解决,对方简单介绍利率等事项,确认我的个人资料,用哪个房抵押,三星期后,通知我俩去银行签字,钱就划进户头了。这些钱不用的话,一年交几十块年费,用才计利息。此时股市房市泡沫已吹的很大,我没任何警觉。老婆每天看cnbc,重要信息告诉过我,有专家指出,连邮递员都能买房,房地产出问题就为期不远了。话音尤在,大跌就来了,从今天看当时,又是一次满地捡黄金的机会。如果先见之明,借出个百八十万做头款,兴许能弄个中型旅馆玩玩。
    那次大跌是从金融开始的,因为银行贪婪,明知风险大,但百分之十几的高利赚的爽阿。对许多买主来说,买前没有权衡过自己能力,可能就如我提到的,有房子牛逼啊,钱又容易借,来一套呗,小母牛骑摩托车牛逼哄哄的,根本不知道自己吃几碗干饭,没有金钢钻,非揽瓷器活,瘦驴拉硬屎,结果还不出房贷,房子被收回,自己也成了大汽车压罗锅,死了也直了。别以为我插诨打科,大老马骟吊翘皮不少,其实理都在呢。
    风暴是从金融业开始的,一夜间,银行停止所有借贷,能借的也审批及严格。以前的招数对我不灵了。(别灰心,对我不灵对别人不一定不灵,我借得太多了,不是数目,而是太多笔)。这次大跌是俯冲式,一路走低,幸亏提前借了笔钱,只能用现金去买,现金也有好处,可把价杀的更低。当时自己也有点实力,想办法筹钱,卖股票债卷,一个一个来。2012年买完最后一个,又没钱了,把蛋又一次放在一个篮子里,怎地?第二年房市再次复苏,最后买的那个房一年翻了一倍,不过这只是个案,武大郎过门坎,碰雀了。

    老朽拙文,不登大雅之堂,好在不是著书立传,胡言乱语,博君一笑而已。
    历史不能复制,但前车之鉴,后事之师,我所经历之事,写点出来供大家参考。前面提到我有十几万资金,就算十万好了,是一开始可动用的。当时房价几万一个的condo一抓一把,以四万一个算,我的很多这个价位。十万能买两个还钱有余,每个租金六百,减去各项开支,能赚三百多,一年轻松收入四千。钱放银行里当时定存利息百分之九以上,也能一年近四千进账,容易啊,没头痛。可到今天呢,利息快降到没有了,就算货币不贬值,房价已经上到二十万以上,本番了几倍。投资回报相当不错了,但我不是这么玩的。不是可以借钱吗?FHA,联邦储备贷款,最多能借十笔,那我就借十笔,用自己的钱一万一个做头款,买他十个房。每个租六百,扣除房贷等开支,每月赚不到一百,一年也有近百分之十的回报,和现金投资差不多,可是风险大,有人赖租两个月以上,全年颗粒无收。但我不考虑这个,听喇喇蛄叫还不种庄稼了。和现金投资相比,你有两个房,我十个,我牛逼!二十年后房租涨到一千三,都不算开销,你两个房收两千六,我收一万三。房价少说好了,二十万 ,你两个共值四十万,我十个,两百万。就算减去三十万贷款,其实还了近二十年没欠多少了,我把你甩开不是一星半点。正因为看到这点,而且充满期望,所以将借贷手段用到极致,才能达到今天的数目。以小搏大,四两拨千金。
    历史不能复制,想有样学样的不能跟着亦趋亦步。这个机会先在没有(不等于以后没有,房地产和股市都是周期性的,骑驴看唱本走着瞧)有人问现在怎么办,这几年前景如何。我不会讲理论,图表分析,这可以去听投资理财专家的,他们都是用头脑想问题,而我是用屁股想问题,用屁股想问题就简单,地是不会曾增涨的人口要增长的,尤其是南加州地区。在中国人圈里,没发现吗,有的所谓地产经纪,投资顾问不过就一家庭妇女,平日闲几无聊,饱食终日,无所用心,弄个执照,楼草打兔子捎带着挣俩钱,屎壳郎趴城门,假充大铆钉。
    还是说点正经的(未完)

    我可不是专家,你我没利益关系,所以可大放厥词,无所顾忌,起码不会忽悠你。
    目前房市虽连升好几年,但属于良性上涨,是必然,看不出大跌迹象。哪年如果经济大好,房价一飞冲天,街头巷尾,茶楼酒肆无不谈论买房卖房,连贩夫走卒,酒囊饭袋都想锦衣玉食,坐拥豪宅,那可就小刀剌屁股镟了。
    那现在怎么办?和股市比,道指是历史新高,敢进吗?有二三十万存款(通货膨胀,不能和二十年前十万比)能指望这点钱退休后过好日子?痴人说梦吧。那你二十万买个说的过去的condo不难吧!减去开支,年收一万多不是问题,再说房价房租都会上涨,这种雕虫小技投资顾问也会告诉你。你想有样学样,敢不敢分开几万一个做头款搞它几个,目前最多能贷到六笔贷款,看你的本事。立马这么干有点难度,当时我下的功夫太大了。不过可以一个一个来,搞一个在手,租出去,收到租再把房抵押出去,贷出款然后玩下一个,入了门道就好办了。就怕人有惰性,看收租就满足,又没狼子野心,就此也就打住了。大的机遇现在没有,小的就要靠自己去挖掘,比如某个deal,cant find hole? put some hair aroud!成事讲天时地利人和。地利明摆着,我们在美国,不像在国内要靠人情关系甚至贪污受贿,在这里平民百姓可以天高任鸟飞,海阔任鱼跃。人和是指你自己的本事,法制国家,凡事都有规矩,运用得法,单枪匹马也可入无人之境。天时就不能掌控了,也就是机遇,可遇不可求,可是机遇往往眷顾勤奋之人。当年在机遇面前我是起早贪黑,废寝忘食。周边同事也有跟着加入,可刚处第一个看房阶段就不胜其烦,想让我代劳或干脆让我代买算了,这我可做不到,投资这种事谁也不敢铁口直断,赚了你眉开眼笑,陪了全赖到我头上,你给出的馊主意,黄泥掉进裤裆里,不是屎也是屎。再说了就算天上掉馅饼,您总得接一下吧?还非得直接掉您嘴里不成!逼里夹柿子,就没那么漤的。(未完)

    行文至此已近尾声
    ,过程讲完,随便聊聊,兼回答些问题。还是那句话,历史不能重复,可以借鉴,可以犯错误,但要吸取教训,投资可以失败,就当交了学费,光看我过五关斩六将却没见我走麦城,没提起就是了。做事不能一朝被蛇咬,十年怕井绳,认准的道就一路走下去,而且是fxxk all the way to the end!不要空言无事事,不要近视无远谋。第一步迈出去难,但一定要迈出去,否则你永远是娶媳妇打幡跟着凑热闹。我说两件经历过的事,也算是回答问题,到今天不一定适用别人,只是给个提示,办法要自己想,活人不能让尿憋死,这些招是堂堂正正上的了台面的,至于阴招损招,公共场合就不提了,免得地产经纪出来拍死我。我既没入过党也没入过团,不信马列不敬鬼神,不进教堂祷告,不入庙宇拜佛,更不信因果报应。不做坏事,偶施小善,乐于助人。对初入此道有问题的我尽量回答。
    先说九几年贷款的事,前面提过,FHA loan可借十笔。我当时想,为舍是十笔,要是一笔两笔三笔,那可能没商量,能借十笔就说明能多借。我找贷款经纪想办法,我搞一堆材料,无非是前担保人的资产,国外的一些莫名其妙信件,那厮要我再写封申请信,神马家有万贯,满世界投资,出来乍到,免从虎穴斩栖身,等家族企业资金一到,让你丫看到我马王爷三只眼,你眼前的英雄会惊煞人之类狂言狂语。我让他代写,那厮说这不太好,银行那边一眼就看出是捉刀代笔,你用自己口气,大概表明子己有实力就行。卧槽,你让我写一篇行云流水的战斗皙文,我就是哭也哭不出来,随便诌几句狗屁不通,连篇错字,让人丈二金刚摸不着头脑的东西还不容易。做生意就是攻防战斗,要知己知彼,银行更明白冰不能放太阳下晒的道理,要把钱贷出去收利息。
    第二件是零八年后,当时基本贷不到款了,前文提到过,事先歪打正着,贷到一笔,加上有点实力,也能匆忙上阵,等于提着现金上场,当时谁都借不到钱,那谁手里有钱就是大爷,杀价杀的像割肉,我脑袋往往还摇的像拨楞鼓,卖方急着出手,上市房到处是,此处不留爷自有留爷处,对象我这样的买主有点岑火打劫的意思。房地产低迷时买卖流程是这样的,经济一萧条,失业率上升,没了工作哪来钱还贷,只好卖房。大家都卖,就难卖,往往卖不出去,就会被银行收回,foreclosure银行要找人或自己卖,这就是杀价的好机会,如果再卖不出去,就走上拍卖。到拍卖的前几天,产全仍在银行手里,我这时打一时间差,因为正常渠道已不能买,地产经纪不能买卖,我直接找银行买,你得懂行情,揣摩银行的底线,银行也不愿意拍卖,要付费用,又不一定拍出去,到时还得再卖。办法要自己想出来。
    投资出租房子,尤其是有贷款,不能急功近利,新手上道都有一个痛苦过程,就像穿新鞋,先别想歪了,抽抽送送,顶住趾弓,初时疼痛,越插越松。头两年磨合好了,三五年后获利会觉得小孩的鸡巴渐长,十年八年的,就神气活现,老太太摸电门,抖起来了。(未完)
    凡事应善始善终,不能西瓜皮擦屁股没完没了,事情简单明了说清楚就好,最恨老太太的裹脚布又臭又长,自己最怕落笔千言,不能自休,让人反感。(曹丕,典论论文) 原本不想在坛子里搅混水,受牛城地主点播才斗胆胡言乱语,人家国内顶尖学府高材生也当起地主,且纡尊降贵,循循善诱,我就腆着个脸试着发点谬论罢了。在这再用一次牛兄名言,想成为千万亿万富翁别问我,那是命里的事。天外有天,我这点东西也就在初入门道者面前能黄鼠狼掀门帘露一小手,要是让我那拥有酒店公寓的前老板看到,我才叫充大冒丁呢,我那仨瓜俩枣根本就是马尾巴穿豆腐提不起来。不过,我乃一常人,常人所为之事他人必可为之。
    大家最想问的就是我该怎么办,能不能教教。每人情况不一样,投资方式也不可能像一个模子刻出来,我聊聊大家普遍能接受招数。万事开头难,毕竟多数人为了生计在疲于奔命,还得挤出有限的精力琢磨另一门道,没办法,拉屎攥拳头,各使一股劲。
    如果手里有二三十万闲钱,或你的房子有那么多钱的净值,可以提刀上阵了,要是我非耗子玩牛大干一场,不过操作起来难度太大,不建议。真有本事的不会听我瞎白活,自己干去了。现在利率低,有净值赶紧麻溜的去借line of credit,十万块钱一个月的利息三百都不到,我当时借十万每月连本带利要还九百。line of credit起码前十年不用还本,而且是你自己掌握运用这笔钱,用到了才付利息,没用就不用付。这个月你赌场小发一笔,你就还回两万,少付利息,下个月你动七年之痒,红颜情妇如过江之鲫,就提点出来应付一下,不过别惊动枕边糟糠。投资买房的过程就自己研究去吧,靠人不如靠己,别让经纪忽悠了。你是投资,回报和效益最重要,再好的东西不赚钱,也坚决弃之如敝屣。看着不顺眼但是收益好就赶快像纳一小妾,抱得美人归。再提一下投资环境,老墨聚集区房价便宜,南加地区墨族族裔是人口曾涨最快的,低价位房容易出租。老墨吃苦耐劳,随安而遇,头脑简单,四肢发达,容易对付,出格的话就不说了。第一个投资最好是condo,投资少,管理上省心。 第一个搞定,租出去,觉得顺利,你就把这个房子抵押出去,再借一笔,弄下一个。数年前我的一个房客的邻居,一伊朗哥们,也是个打工仔,收入不错,经我三言两语点播,如醍醐灌顶,立马行动,先在他有三个,每次见了我都感激一番,起码不怕失业了。但凡投资,你必须有启动资金,四两拨千斤,你得有这四两。如果上无片瓦,下无立锥之地,且囊中羞涩,食嗟来之食,奢谈投资?老头劈叉——扯蛋!(不好意思,没写完,还要再续)

    怎么也得结束了,在这里先感谢各位赏光垂爱。上文有的人对line of credit不太明白,我补充一下。现说另一档事,我在坛子里躺了一圈,看到一些朋友求大师指点,问房市这几年行情,看的出你们的焦虑。我不是大师,只是用屁股想问题,今天先不调侃,认认真真的探讨问题。
    支撑房地产上升最重要的因素是人口,睁眼看看南加州的人口吧!别拿富二代说事,粪青们意淫祖国强大了,富豪们在美国买房比买白菜还容易,太自不量力了,这些人不过是沧海一粟,根本左右不了市场。南加州特别适合人类居住,新生代和移民曾长迅猛,少数族裔以老墨amigo人口基数最大,这对出租市场很重要。老墨买的起房的比例是最少的。有意投资出租房子的,别把自己围在中国人圈里混。
    历史的长河里房价房租一路上升,但有周期性,大家最关心的是今天买了会不会明天就跌,想让我说吗?我可以说但不说,说了就成伪大师了,但我可以把用屁股想出来问题说说。上面一已经说过人口,再说房价和房租,一般情况下,房价暴涨房租停滞,房价暴跌房子易租,能明白吗?现在是房价房租全上涨,说明两个市场供求都紧张。一方面低利率肯定推动购房者意愿,另一方面谨慎出贷,使银行几乎没有风险,因为自住房都要百分之二十头款,投资房百分之三十都不一定贷到。其结果呢?低利率促进房价上涨,高门坎遏制房价一飞冲天。加上人口红利,房地产今后几年应该是什走势?至于地震,缺水等耸人听闻的问题是自己吓唬自己,只有当事情发生了才会有影响。
    再看看房地产大小鳄们这干嘛?当你徘徊之时,他们在鲸吞,你只关心房价涨跌,他们是追逐利益,不仅仅是短期利益。拿我周边来说,当年两万的房现在十五万还是能买到一房的condo。租一千二每月好了,(我现在的租金是一千一多点,对老客户房租优惠,减少流动性,这是房屋管理方面的另一话题)减去四百开销。年收益是多少?银行利息是多少?再说房地产是长期投资,近期不赢利,只要前景好,还是有人投,冰不能放太阳下晒。根据以往规律,现在一千二,十年后达到两千不无可能,算算吧,用两千来计算回报率是对少?到时你能指望用十五万去收每月两千的房租?做梦吧!我的左邻台湾人,刚搬去两百万的房住,真TM有钱,现在这个一百万房不卖,三千五租出去,回收率再低也比放银行里强。我们这是零三建的新房,当时是四十多万。看出来了吗?低端价位的房租金效益好,高端价位的升值快,怎么都合适。像我等零散小户,只能零敲碎打,那些所谓的鳄们是宁敲金钟一下,不打瓦钵三千。右邻从杜拜来的,提着现金买房,对面是韩国,南美,台湾人,后面有白人,菲律宾,南欧人,在社区里反正没见到富二代。大鳄小鳄都没着急,你们急什么呢?还有人说有钱人都出去旅行了,房价危了,这和房价价有关系吗?先声明,我不是富人,但就好旅游这一口,就算有交易在手,途中打个电话不就行了?我马上就要外出,烟花三月下扬州(阴历)五月初夏游北欧,所以急着结束话题。再细说就是教科书里的东西,自己看吧,教科书读起来味同嚼蜡,不说的直截了当。
    再回来说line of credit。这种贷款必须先有房做抵押。有多少钱可以投资要看你有多大本事,以一般的人来说吧,直接点,二十五万,不论钱是哪来的,可以是存款,房屋净值贷款也就是line of credit,或是你筹集来的,可以动手了,现金二十万买一个没问题,租一千五是最少的了,就算减去没月五六百开销,年收一万很容易。就算暂时获益少,中国人的观点是有土斯财。你这个房是现金购买 百分之百净值,很容易贷出钱来,接着就可搞下一个。有本事的想一下玩几个吗?就像当年我的做法,虽操作困难,不推荐,说实在的有胆量去玩的话,还是很好玩的,一下子有不止一个房自我感觉就牛逼。不管怎么玩,得有一笔起动资金,毕竟泰山不是堆的,火车不是推的,牛逼不是吹的。再有各种准备工作要做好,不要仓促应战,毛主席教导我们  凡事预则立,不预则废。屎都顶到肛门了再想放屁就来不急了。